Professor Daniel Gilbert Explains Mistakes in Predicting Happiness to St. John’s University Alumni

April 13, 2007

Faculty and Alumni from St. John’s University listened to an enthusiastic lecture by Harvard Professor of Psychology Dr. Daniel Gilbert. The third guest in St. John’s College of Liberal Arts and Sciences’ Alumni speaker series, Gilbert’s talk was titled “What the Secret of Happiness Isn’t.”

Dr. Gilbert is the author of the New York Times bestseller “Stumbling on Happiness.” The book, which is not designed as a self-help manual, explores what doctors and scientists have discovered about why we tend to wrongly predict what makes us happy.

Dr. Gilbert stated that throughout history happiness was “an elusive thing that no one expected to obtain,” since, with life expectancy much shorter, people lived each day trying not to die. In the past 75-100 years, a large portion of people have just about everything they want; however, society in general doesn’t seem to be any happier.

He presented a formula that suggests how human beings might go about finding happiness through decisions they make: The wisdom of any action is equal to the odds of getting what you want multiplied by the value of getting what you want. The problem, Dr. Gilbert says, is that humans make errors in determining the odds and the values and mispredict what will make them happy.

Dr. Gilbert supplied examples of our common errors in predicting odds and values and noted another problem – the problem of shifting comparisons.

“The ruler you use to predict value when you are making a decision isn’t the same as what you use to rate the actual experience,” Dr. Gilbert explained.

Dr. Gilbert suggested using careful, accurate estimates to determine the odds of getting what you want. He provided one last example, stating, “We didn’t get to the moon using our intuition. We got there by using rational, reasonable thinking.”

In conclusion, Dr. Gilbert explained how the complex system of our brain evolved in relation to the world of years ago. As a result, we are not great at making the decisions we have to make on a daily basis today. His advice – the road to happiness = learning to listen to the theories of those from the past. His research on how people make choices and decisions incorporates cognitive psychology and behavioral economics and has been used in the areas of strategic planning, sales and marketing and for businesses to help better understand their customers.

Dr. Gilbert has received several awards for his teaching and his research, including the American Psychological Association’s Distinguished Scientific Award and was selected as one of the Harvard’s 20 Most Outstanding Professors in 2005. In addition to his bestseller, he has published works of science fiction and has written for Time Magazine, The New York Times, The Los Angeles Times and Forbes Magazine.

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